Federal contractors, including PSC’s 400+ member companies, rely on agency procurement forecasts to (1) conduct business planning and (2) better focus capabilities development on the needs of their federal government customer(s). 

 
The fourth edition of PSC’s annual Federal Business Forecast Scorecard examined publicly available procurement forecasts from 62 federal agencies and sub-components.

PSC is pleased to report general improvements across the U.S. Government since the release of the last PSC scorecard in July 2021, even though there are marked examples of agency forecasts that still include incomplete, inconsistent, or outdated information (e.g., six agencies surveyed do not have publicly accessible forecasts).

We also note that publicly available forecasts represent only one way in which the federal government engages its industry partners. The acquisition workforce works tirelessly to update SAM.gov opportunities, engage in market research, and organize industry days. PSC and its member companies appreciate the government’s efforts to engage industry partners in a meaningful exchange of ideas.

We also note that an accessible, navigable procurement forecast is particularly important for companies who are unable to participate in such outreach, as well as those companies who are beginning to explore whether they should enter the federal market. Agencies’ web-based business forecasts can play a pivotal role in attracting new entrants – or re-attracting contractors who recently left the federal market – into work with the U.S. Government.

PSC respectfully offers this Scorecard in the hopes of providing examples which agencies can use to improve their forecasts in ways that provide more timely, relevant information to industry. We look forward to continuing the conversation with acquisition officials as they prepare their next acquisition business forecasts.
 


  



Model for Success: GSA

General Services Administration (GSA) received the Business Forecast Scorecard's highest score in 2022. GSA’s forecast of contracting opportunities uses an “acquisition gateway” system which provides multiple ways to sort information quickly to identify specific contracting opportunities. This system is shared with Departments of Labor and Justice, which both also had improved scores this year. GSA’s opportunities are consistently updated, populated with useful information to support companies' decision-making, and frequently go above and beyond to provide accurate, up-to-date information to its industry partners.
 



 



Honorable Mention: Marine Corps Systems Command

Marine Corps Systems Command (MCSC) earned an honorable mention in the 2022 Scorecard, jumping from "lacking a forecast" in 2021 to a “fair” rating in just a year. PSC commends MCSC for rapidly and competently improving the forecast information shared with the public. We encourage MCSC to continue this positive trajectory by updating forecast information more frequently and addressing more clearly the recompete / incumbent status and buying office fields for each opportunity within their website.







Honorable Mention: Naval Information Warfare Systems Command

Naval Information Warfare Systems Command earned an honorable mention in the 2022 Scorecard, maintaining its top rating of a “good” forecast. While certain restrictions can prevent Department of Defense services and agencies from making publicly available a fully populated, timely forecast, NAVWAR stands out as a top DoD component in this regard. PSC commends NAVWAR for it continued outstanding work in providing valuable, relevant information on its opportunities.









Needs Improvement: Department of Defense Medical

Given the national and global impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, PSC noted with surprise that the Department of Defense's (DoD’s) Defense Health Agency and the U.S. Army Medical Research and Development Command saw marked decreases in scores since 2021. As noted earlier, certain restrictions can prevent DoD services and agencies from making a publicly available, fully populated, timely forecast. However, COVID-19-related activities – especially the use of government contracts with private sector partners to support a whole-of-nation response – translated into high expectations for health-related agencies to share accurate information to support companies' decision-making. PSC encourages DHA and USAMRDC to improve the timeliness and content of their forecasts.
   


How Does Industry Use Business Forecasts?

To provide federal customers with more timely, comprehensive, and thoroughly researched solutions when final Requests for Proposals (RFPs) are released, companies rely on the accuracy, comprehensiveness, and timeliness of an agency’s business forecast, especially though not limited to the publicly available website. Often, resource allocation and teaming decisions are made well in advance of the RFP. A useful forecast would provide excellent, actionable information that can enable interested entities to determine potential staffing requirements, project needs, and costs. While PSC and the services contracting community fully recognize that spending priorities often change on short notice, significant course corrections tend to be the exceptions rather than the rule in the services sector.




Scorecard Methodology

Due to the number of agencies and subcomponents tracked and in order to be as objective as possible, PSC staff take a “snapshot” of agencies’ web-based forecasts at the beginning of the second quarter of the government’s fiscal year (i.e., January). The staff then begin the assessment process.

  • Using 15 key attributes used by services contractors who seek to make go / no-go decisions based on available information, one assessor reviews each agency’s forecast and assigns point values in accordance with those attributes. Of note, each attribute is weighted in accordance with its relative importance to industry; PSC has vetted these attributes with contractors, with government officials, and internally within PSC.
  • Other PSC staff then conduct a “blind” reassessment process wherein they are unaware of the score already assigned to an agency's forecast. This step encourages objectivity. In the event of a discrepancy between the two assessments for a particular forecast, the staff discuss their perspectives and resolve the discrepancy. This happened only twice for the 62 forecasts assessed in 2022.
  • Finally, PSC compares total scores of the assessed agencies side-by-side, determining the distribution of scores into Good, Fair, Needs Improvement, or Not Found. These cleavage points often “pop out” of the assessment process.
     

PSC’s 15 Key Attributes for a Successful Business Forecast

1. Searchable Spreadsheet
Ideally, all agencies should have forecasts available in Excel format. This format allows industry to easily search for and organize information of their choosing and program offices can easily update it with new and recent information. In contrast, PDFs are often disorganized and undersized, complicating the user’s ability to utilize it efficiently. It also often indicates that the agency does not frequently update the forecast. Additional points are awarded for advanced Electronically Sortable Information systems which go above and beyond excel.

2. Date Modified Listed
Modification dates inform users whether the information is recent and updated. If the data are outdated, contractors might need to find relevant contracting information or other opportunities some other way.

3. Frequency Updated
Agencies are evaluated on how current their listed opportunities are in their published forecasts.

4. Project Description and Contract Number
Agencies are evaluated on the existence and comprehensiveness of a project description and if a contract number has been assigned.

5. Dollar Value and Base Option
Agencies are evaluated on whether the dollar value of their projects are listed and the specificity of the dollar values. Points awarded if base options are listed.

6. Program POC and COR PC Contact Info
Agencies are evaluated on whether a point of contact is specified for each opportunity, with an individual’s (not generic) email address and phone number.

7. Program Office and Buying Office
Agencies are evaluated on whether they specified their program and buying office for respective services.

8. NAICS Code Listed
Agencies are evaluated on whether the NAICS code is specified for each opportunity.

9. Recompete/Incumbent Listed
Agencies are evaluated on whether the incumbent is specified for each opportunity, or the forecast shows it is a new requirement with no incumbent.

10. Set Aside Type
Agencies are evaluated on whether they have small business set aside information available for their opportunities, including set aside specifications.

11. Contract Vehicle (IDIQ, BPA)
Agencies are evaluated on whether a particular contract vehicle is listed for each opportunity.

12. Anticipated Solicitation Release Date
Agencies are evaluated on whether the anticipated solicitation release date is specified.

13. Action/Award Type
Agencies are evaluated on whether the action, award type, and contract type are specified, such as competitive or sole source, and whether the award is cost-type, fixed fee, or time and material.

14. Anticipated Award Date
Agencies are evaluated on whether the anticipated award date or fiscal year quarter is specified.

15. Frequency Published
Agencies are evaluated on whether the forecast is published daily, monthly, twice a year, or yearly.

Ranking by Year, Compared




Note: “Not scored” refers to forecasts from the 62 2022 agencies who were not measured in previous iterations.

Acknowledgments

PSC expresses deep appreciation for the numerous colleagues, who helped make this Scorecard as precise, inclusive, and helpful as possible. Continued conversations with government agencies, including but not limited to recent and robust interactions with the Office of Federal Procurement Policy and the Department of State, provided valuable insights into forecasting design and the impact of PSC’s previous Scorecards. Additionally, feedback from members of the PSC Foundation’s “Vision” teams – who provide tremendous value through the 10-month long Vision Federal Market Forecast process with hundreds of agency discussions, data collection, collaboration, and trend analysis – helped to refine the metrics used in the PSC 2022 Scorecard. Finally, additional PSC staff contributed tirelessly to overseeing, cross-checking, marketing, and rolling out this product.

For More Information

If you have questions about the Scorecard or would like to engage with PSC further, please contact policy@pscouncil.org.

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About PSC

PSC is the voice of the government technology and professional services industry. PSC’s more than 400 member companies represent small, medium and large businesses that provide federal agencies with services of all kinds, including information technology, engineering, logistics, facilities management, operations and maintenance, consulting, international development, scientific, social, environmental services, and more. Together, the trade association’s members employ hundreds of thousands of Americans in all 50 states. Follow PSC on Twitter @PSCspeaks. To learn more, visit www.pscouncil.org.